Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Trevor Lawrence

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Rushing Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 7:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Trevor Lawrence to accrue 3.9 carries in this week's contest, on average: the 10th-most of all QBs.
THE BLITZ projects Trevor Lawrence to be much more involved in his team's running game this week (14.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (5.8% in games he has played).
The Philadelphia Eagles defensive tackles project as the worst collection of DTs in the league since the start of last season with their run defense.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.0% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Jaguars are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 9th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 58.0 plays per game.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the 10th-worst in football since the start of last season in run blocking.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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