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Trevor Lawrence

Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 20

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-150/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -140 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -150.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects Trevor Lawrence to be much more involved in his team's run game this week (17.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (8.2% in games he has played).

The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have risked going for it on 4th down 23.0% of the time since the start of last season (8th-most in the NFL), which typically means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).

The Jaguars are a giant 8.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 3rd-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 37.2% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 3rd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

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