Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Rushing Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 3:36 AM EST

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jaguars are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Trevor Lawrence to be a more important option in his offense's rushing attack this week (15.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (7.9% in games he has played).
Trevor Lawrence's rushing efficiency has gotten a boost this year, accumulating 5.68 yards-per-carry compared to a measly 4.80 figure last year.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.7% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to run the 11th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line grades out as the worst in the NFL this year at blocking for the run game.
Opposing teams have run for the 2nd-least yards in the league (just 82 per game) against the Tennessee Titans defense this year.