Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Trevor Lawrence

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 8, 2026

Updated Oct 30, 2026 2:49 PM EST

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 236.5 (-135/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 249.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 236.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Trevor Lawrence has thrown for quite a few more adjusted yards per game (270.0) this year than he did last year (202.0).
Trevor Lawrence's passing precision has gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 60.5% to 67.7%.
Trevor Lawrence's 8.80 adjusted yards-per-target this season represents a noteable boost in his passing efficiency over last season's 7.2% rate.
The Colts pass defense has displayed weak efficiency this year, allowing 8.54 adjusted yards-per-target: the 4th-most in the league.
The Indianapolis Colts defense has been vulnerable when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.98 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the 8th-most in football.

Favors Under

This week's spread indicates an extreme running game script for the Jaguars, who are a massive favorite by 10 points.
The predictive model expects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 5th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 53.6% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see only 126.4 plays on offense run: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.
The 7th-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Jaguars this year (a measly 55.3 per game on average).
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.

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