Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 3:42 PM EST

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 225.5 (+100/-104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 231.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 225.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Eagles defense this year: 8th-most in the league.
Trevor Lawrence's passing precision has improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 60.5% to 69.0%.
Trevor Lawrence's 8.43 adjusted yards-per-target this season signifies a material growth in his throwing effectiveness over last season's 7.2% mark.
The Philadelphia defensive ends rank as the 3rd-worst collection of DEs in football this year in regard to pass rush.

Favors Under

With a 6-point advantage, the Jaguars are favored this week, suggesting more of a reliance on running than their standard approach.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Jaguars to pass on 54.3% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see just 125.8 plays on offense run: the 4th-fewest among all games this week.
The Jaguars have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 51.2 plays per game.
In this game, Trevor Lawrence is anticipated by the projection model to total the 9th-fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 32.0.