Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 4:32 PM EST

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 262.5 (+100/-104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 265.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 262.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Jaguars to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 59.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and lower run volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Trevor Lawrence rates as one of the leading QBs in the league since the start of last season, averaging a remarkable 204.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 76th percentile.
Trevor Lawrence's passing precision has improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 60.5% to 66.1%.
With a fantastic 8.02 adjusted yards-per-target (84th percentile) this year, Trevor Lawrence rates as one of the most effective passers in football.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Jaguars to call the 3rd-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 61.3 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.