Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 3:48 PM EST

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 223.5 (-117/+104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 249.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 223.5 @ +104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Jaguars to pass on 58.9% of their chances: the 9th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
With a remarkable tally of 205.0 adjusted passing yards per game (78th percentile), Trevor Lawrence rates as one of the leading quarterbacks in the league since the start of last season.
Trevor Lawrence's 67.6% Adjusted Completion% this year indicates a meaningful progression in his passing precision over last year's 60.5% rate.
Trevor Lawrence's 8.86 adjusted yards-per-target this year illustrates a material growth in his passing efficiency over last year's 7.2% figure.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 6th-highest level in football against the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season (73.0% Adjusted Completion%).

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to have just 126.0 plays on offense called: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The Patriots cornerbacks rank as the 9th-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.