Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM EST

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 246.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 247.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 246.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.3% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 6th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass game stats across the board.
Trevor Lawrence has passed for significantly more yards per game (245.0) this season than he did last season (213.0).
Trevor Lawrence's passing precision has been refined this year, with his Completion% rising from 58.9% to 66.3%.

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a huge 7-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 11th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 56.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 4th-lowest rate in the NFL vs. the Houston Texans defense this year (64.3%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.