Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Trevor Lawrence

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 212.5 (-104/-131).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 244.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 212.5 @ -131.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.0% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Jaguars are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Trevor Lawrence to attempt 37.2 passes this week, on average: the 9th-most of all quarterbacks.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in football.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 9th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 58.0 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest clip in the league vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year (61.2%).
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has displayed good efficiency this year, allowing 5.57 yards-per-target: the 2nd-least in football.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.80 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 4th-least in football.

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