Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Trevor Lawrence

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing Yards

New York Jets vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 23, 2022 1:16 AM EST

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 208.5 (-105/-124).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 236.5 @ -116 before it was bet down to 208.5 @ -124.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.9% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
Trevor Lawrence has attempted 36.8 passes per game this year, ranking in the 77th percentile among QBs.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line ranks as the 6th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
Trevor Lawrence has thrown for substantially more yards per game (260.0) this season than he did last season (212.0).
Trevor Lawrence's passing accuracy has gotten better this season, with his Completion% jumping from 59.0% to 66.1%.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 11th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 56.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have thrown for the 7th-least yards in the NFL (just 213.0 per game) versus the New York Jets defense this year.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 5th-lowest level in the league against the New York Jets defense this year (67.4%).
The New York Jets pass defense has shown good efficiency this year, allowing 6.87 yards-per-target: the 4th-least in the league.

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