Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Trevor Lawrence

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 248.5 (+110/-151).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 257.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 248.5 @ -151.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Jaguars are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
The Jaguars rank as the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 62.1% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run out of all the games this week at 139.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Trevor Lawrence to attempt 38.8 passes in this game, on average: the 7th-most of all QBs.

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have passed for the 2nd-least yards in the NFL (just 205.0 per game) against the Dallas Cowboys defense this year.
The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has shown good efficiency this year, giving up 7.13 yards-per-target: the 7th-least in football.
The Dallas Cowboys linebackers project as the 5th-best unit in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Dallas Cowboys defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-fastest in football since the start of last season.

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