Trevor Lawrence Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Trevor Lawrence

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Pass Attempts

Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 5:11 PM EST

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (+111/-148).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 33.5 @ -108 before it was bet down to 33.5 @ -148.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.8% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Jaguars have been the 9th-most pass-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) this year with a 61.7% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 10th-quickest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, with opposing offenses averaging 27.69 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone for it on 4th down 23.0% of the time since the start of last season (8th-most in the NFL), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.

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