Trevor Lawrence Interceptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Interceptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Interceptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-151/+122).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -151.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.0% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Jaguars are a huge 9.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 5th-most in the league.
The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line profiles as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line has afforded their quarterback 2.56 seconds before getting pressured (5th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all air attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
The Baltimore Ravens have intercepted 1.06 throws per game this year, grading out as the 4th-best defense in the league by this standard.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties grade out as the 5th-best collection of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.
The Baltimore Ravens pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.