Trevor Lawrence Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Completions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 3:48 PM EST

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (+107/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -150 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ +107.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Jaguars to pass on 58.9% of their chances: the 9th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
Trevor Lawrence's 67.6% Adjusted Completion% this year indicates a meaningful progression in his passing precision over last year's 60.5% rate.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 6th-highest level in football against the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season (73.0% Adjusted Completion%).

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to have just 126.0 plays on offense called: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The Patriots cornerbacks rank as the 9th-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.