Trevor Lawrence Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Trevor Lawrence

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Completions

Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM EST

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 21.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.0% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Jaguars are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Trevor Lawrence to attempt 37.2 passes this week, on average: the 9th-most of all quarterbacks.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in football.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 9th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 58.0 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest clip in the league vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year (61.2%).
The Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks project as the best unit in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season.

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