Trevor Lawrence Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 19

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Completions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM UTC

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (+142/-192).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 23.5 @ -132 before it was bet down to 23.5 @ -192.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Jaguars have been the 9th-most pass-oriented team in football (adjusted for context) this year with a 62.1% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
Trevor Lawrence's throwing accuracy has gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% rising from 59.0% to 66.3%.

Favors Under

Opposing offenses have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: least in the NFL.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 6th-lowest clip in football against the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year (67.5%).
The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers grade out as the 4th-best group of LBs in football this year in covering receivers.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.