Trevor Lawrence Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Carries

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans · Week 6, 2026

Updated Oct 18, 2026 12:37 PM EST

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-106/+104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.0 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being predicted in this game) usually correlate with decreased passing effectiveness, reduced pass volume, and increased ground volume.
Our trusted projections expect Trevor Lawrence to be much more involved in his team's run game in this game (15.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (8.7% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The Jaguars have run the 6th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling just 54.0 plays per game.
The Texans defensive ends rank as the best group of DEs in football this year when it comes to run defense.