Trevor Lawrence Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Trevor Lawrence

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Carries

Cincinnati Bengals vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 4:32 PM EST

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-111/+100).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect Trevor Lawrence to be much more involved in his team's ground game in this game (16.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (9.5% in games he has played).
The Cincinnati Bengals safeties rank as the 32nd-worst safety corps in football since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 9th-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 40.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Jaguars to call the 3rd-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 61.3 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and lower run volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

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