Trevor Lawrence Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Trevor Lawrence

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Carries

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 12:58 PM EST

Analysis

Trevor Lawrence Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-185/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jaguars are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, New England's group of DTs has been atrocious since the start of last season, profiling as the 6th-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Favors Under

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Jaguars to run on 41.0% of their chances: the 9th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to have just 125.9 plays on offense called: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.
Trevor Lawrence has been a less important option in his team's running game this season (7.0% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (17.3%).