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Tre'Quan Smith

Tre'Quan Smith Receptions
Player Prop Week 8

New Orleans Saints vs Las Vegas Raiders

 
 
 
Tre'Quan Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+160/-210).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -190 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -210.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The New Orleans Saints will be forced to utilize backup QB Andy Dalton in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
  • THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 9th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 27.79 seconds per play.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • Tre'Quan Smith's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% increasing from 65.3% to 73.6%.
  • The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has yielded the 3rd-highest Completion% in the league (71.3%) to wide receivers this year (71.3%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 10th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 57.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Tre'Quan Smith has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (59.1% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (74.9%).
  • The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the league). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.
  • The New Orleans Saints have gone for it on 4th down a measly 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.

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