Tre'Quan Smith Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Tre'Quan Smith

NFL · Player Props

Tre'Quan Smith

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 8, 2022 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Tre'Quan Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-110/-118).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New Orleans Saints will be rolling with backup QB Andy Dalton this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.
Tre'Quan Smith's ball-catching skills have been refined this year, with his Completion% jumping from 65.3% to 69.7%.
Tre'Quan Smith's receiving efficiency has been refined this season, totaling 11.81 yards-per-target vs a measly 8.39 mark last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 57.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Tre'Quan Smith has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (59.1% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (74.9%).
The Baltimore Ravens safeties profile as the 6th-best collection of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.
The Baltimore Ravens pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-fastest in football since the start of last season.

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