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Tre'Quan Smith

Tre'Quan Smith Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 8

New Orleans Saints vs Las Vegas Raiders

Tre'Quan Smith Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+314/-572).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +323 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +314.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 9th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 27.79 seconds per play.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

THE BLITZ projects Tre'Quan Smith to be a much bigger part of his offense's pass game near the end zone this week (13.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (7.7% in games he has played).

Tre'Quan Smith has totaled quite a few more air yards this season (54.0 per game) than he did last season (46.0 per game).

Tre'Quan Smith's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% increasing from 65.3% to 73.6%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Tre'Quan Smith's 29.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 37.1.

The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the league). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.

The New Orleans Saints have gone for it on 4th down a measly 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.

More Tre'Quan Smith Player Props

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