Tre'Quan Smith Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

NFL · Player Props

Tre'Quan Smith

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receiving TD

Arizona Cardinals vs New Orleans Saints · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 20, 2022 11:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Tre'Quan Smith Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+363/-725).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +405 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +363.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Tre'Quan Smith to be a much bigger part of his offense's pass attack near the end zone this week (12.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (5.3% in games he has played).
Tre'Quan Smith has totaled far more air yards this season (55.0 per game) than he did last season (46.0 per game).
The New Orleans Saints offensive line grades out as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all air attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

Opposing QBs have averaged 34.2 pass attempts per game against the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 10th-least in football.
Tre'Quan Smith's 29.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 37.1.
The Arizona Cardinals defense has surrendered the 3rd-least passing TDs in football to wide receivers: 0.33 per game this year.
The Arizona Cardinals defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on just 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in football). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.