Tre'Quan Smith Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Tre'Quan Smith

NFL · Player Props

Tre'Quan Smith

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receiving TD

New Orleans Saints vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Tre'Quan Smith Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+317/-581).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -570 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -581.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 3rd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Tre'Quan Smith has been a big part of his team's pass game near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 15.0% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 76th percentile among wideouts.
The New Orleans Saints offensive line ranks as the best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Seattle Seahawks cornerbacks rank as the 5th-worst group of CBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.8 pass attempts per game versus the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 7th-least in football.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
The New Orleans Saints have elected to go for it on 4th down just 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

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