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Tre'Quan Smith

Tre'Quan Smith Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 4

New Orleans Saints vs Minnesota Vikings

Tre'Quan Smith Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+412/-897).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -853 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -897.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Saints are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing teams have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the NFL.

Tre'Quan Smith has been an integral part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 16.1% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 80th percentile among WRs.

Tre'Quan Smith has received a colossal 20.6% of his offense's air yards since the start of last season: 75th percentile among WRs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The New Orleans Saints have run the 7th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 57.6 plays per game.

The New Orleans Saints have played in the 6th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to result in reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game performance when facing windier conditions in this game.

The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on just 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

The New Orleans Saints have gone for it on 4th down a measly 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

More Tre'Quan Smith Player Props

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