Trent Sherfield Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Trent Sherfield

NFL · Player Props

Trent Sherfield

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs Cleveland Browns · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Trent Sherfield Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+204/-278).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -149 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +204.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 7th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 64.3% pass rate.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Trent Sherfield's 17.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 8.8.
Trent Sherfield's pass-catching performance been refined this season, totaling 2.0 yards per game vs just 0.9 last season.
Trent Sherfield has been among the best possession receivers in the league, hauling in a terrific 79.8% of balls thrown his way this year, grading out in the 87th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the 6th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 8th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 55.9 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in football.
The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.

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