Trent Sherfield Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Trent Sherfield

NFL · Player Props

Trent Sherfield

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving TD

Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 12, 2022 1:16 AM EST

Analysis

Trent Sherfield Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+270/-455).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +288 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +270.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Trent Sherfield has totaled significantly more air yards this year (35.0 per game) than he did last year (10.0 per game).
Trent Sherfield's 20.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this year than it was last year at 8.8.
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has yielded the 8th-highest Completion% in the league (68.3%) versus WRs this year (68.3%).
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has surrendered the 6th-most TDs through the air in the NFL to WRs: 1.00 per game this year.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 8th-least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 54.7 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.7 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 7th-least in the NFL.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.
The Miami Dolphins O-line has afforded their quarterback just 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

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