Trent Sherfield Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Trent Sherfield

NFL · Player Props

Trent Sherfield

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving TD

Miami Dolphins vs Cleveland Browns · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Trent Sherfield Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+395/-837).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +399 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +395.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Trent Sherfield has totaled many more air yards this season (26.0 per game) than he did last season (11.0 per game).
Trent Sherfield's 17.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 8.8.
Trent Sherfield has been among the best possession receivers in the league, hauling in a terrific 79.8% of balls thrown his way this year, grading out in the 87th percentile among WRs.
The Cleveland Browns safeties rank as the 3rd-worst collection of safeties in the league this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the 6th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 8th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 55.9 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in football.
The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.

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