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Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce Receptions
Player Prop Week 9

Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Travis Kelce Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-175/+135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -175.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Buccaneers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 4th-most passes in football (38.6 per game) this year.

The projections expect Travis Kelce to total 8.8 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 100th percentile among tight ends.

Travis Kelce's 57.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 50.2.

The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing game statistics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chiefs are a huge 8.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.

Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs as the least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 56.9% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

Travis Kelce's 76.8% Adjusted Catch% this season indicates a substantial diminishment in his pass-catching talent over last season's 80.1% figure.

More Travis Kelce Player Props

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