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Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

Kansas City Chiefs vs New Orleans Saints

Travis Kelce Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-149/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -149.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-oriented team in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 66.7% pass rate.

The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

Opposing QBs have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Saints defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.

With an elite 88.2% Route Participation Rate (99th percentile) this year, Travis Kelce stands among the tight ends with the most usage in football.

The model projects Travis Kelce to total 7.7 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile among TEs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread implies an extreme rushing game script for the Chiefs, who are a heavy favorite by 8 points.

The model projects this game to have the smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 124.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Chiefs this year (a mere 54.0 per game on average).

Travis Kelce's receiving performance has declined this year, compiling a mere 3.6 adjusted receptions compared to 6.2 last year.

Travis Kelce's 66.2% Adjusted Completion Rate this year illustrates a significant drop-off in his receiving prowess over last year's 80.1% figure.

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