Travis Kelce Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

My Account Log Out

reorder

Travis Kelce

NFL · Player Props

Travis Kelce

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Minnesota Vikings vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Travis Kelce Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (+102/-139).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ +114 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 65.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs to run the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.8 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
This week, Travis Kelce is projected by the model to finish in the 100th percentile among tight ends with 10.2 targets.
Travis Kelce has been among the best TE receiving threats since the start of last season, averaging an excellent 6.4 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 100th percentile.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on running than their usual approach.
Travis Kelce has been used less as a potential target this year (68.5% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (83.1%).
Travis Kelce's sure-handedness have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Catch% decreasing from 74.6% to 65.3%.
The Vikings safeties profile as the 2nd-best group of safeties in the league this year in pass coverage.

More Travis Kelce Props Data by WriteNow™

About WriteNow