Travis Kelce Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 22

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NFL · Player Props

Travis Kelce

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 22, 2023

Updated Feb 11, 2024 5:31 PM EST

Analysis

Travis Kelce Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-160/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -150 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs to be the most pass-oriented offense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 68.5% pass rate.
The projections expect this game to have the smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 127.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being projected in this game) usually mean better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and lower run volume.
The model projects Travis Kelce to notch 10.0 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile among tight ends.
Travis Kelce ranks in the 100th percentile for tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive usage) with an astounding 52.8 figure this year.

Favors Under

When it comes to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, San Francisco's collection of LBs has been terrific this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in football.