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Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce Receptions
Player Prop Week 9

Kansas City Chiefs vs Tennessee Titans

 
 
 
Travis Kelce Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -145.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 62.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense this year: 6th-most in football.
  • THE BLITZ projects Travis Kelce to notch 8.8 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile among TEs.
  • Travis Kelce's 56.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 49.4.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Chiefs are a big 13.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 4th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The Tennessee Titans defensive ends rank as the 3rd-best collection of DEs in the NFL this year when it comes to pass rush.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on just 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
  • The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box against opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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