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Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce Receptions
Player Prop Week 6

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills

Travis Kelce Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ +105 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 65.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 136.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Travis Kelce to total 9.9 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among TEs.

Travis Kelce's 55.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 49.4.

The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing offense stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.

Opposing QBs have averaged 33.6 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 8th-least in the league.

The Buffalo Bills pass defense has yielded the 6th-lowest Completion% in the league (62.7%) vs. TEs this year (62.7%).

The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the best group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on just 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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