Travis Kelce Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

NFL · Player Props

Travis Kelce

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 11, 2022 12:20 AM EST

Analysis

Travis Kelce Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 7.0 (-130/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 7.0 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Travis Kelce to notch 9.6 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile among TEs.
Travis Kelce's 57.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 49.4.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Travis Kelce's play as a receiver has gotten a boost this season, compiling 6.6 yards per game vs a mere 4.9 last season.
Travis Kelce's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% rising from 70.6% to 77.3%.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a massive 7-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 63.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run among all games this week at 128.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a measly 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.