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Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders

 
 
 
Travis Kelce Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 7.0 (-130/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 7.0 @ -130.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • THE BLITZ projects Travis Kelce to notch 9.6 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile among TEs.
  • Travis Kelce's 57.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 49.4.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
  • Travis Kelce's play as a receiver has gotten a boost this season, compiling 6.6 yards per game vs a mere 4.9 last season.
  • Travis Kelce's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% rising from 70.6% to 77.3%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Chiefs are a massive 7-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 63.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run among all games this week at 128.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a measly 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.

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