Travis Kelce Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Travis Kelce

NFL · Player Props

Travis Kelce

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 5:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Travis Kelce Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+128/-167).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 61.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 6th-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 9th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.4 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Travis Kelce to notch 9.3 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile among TEs.
Travis Kelce has been a key part of his team's passing attack, posting a Target Share of 24.9% this year, which ranks in the 99th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a huge 10.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.5 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 4th-least in football.
The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has allowed the 6th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (67.5%) versus TEs this year (67.5%).
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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