Travis Kelce Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Travis Kelce

NFL · Player Props

Travis Kelce

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Travis Kelce Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-105/-126).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ +102 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -126.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-oriented offense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 72.4% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Travis Kelce to accrue 9.5 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile among TEs.
Travis Kelce's 55.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 49.4.
Travis Kelce's pass-catching performance gotten better this year, totaling 7.0 yards per game vs just 4.9 last year.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 10th-least in the NFL.
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has yielded the 5th-lowest Completion% in the league (63%) vs. TEs this year (63.0%).
The Los Angeles Rams pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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