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Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce Receptions
Player Prop Week 10

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Travis Kelce Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-170/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -155 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -170.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 65.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 2nd-most total plays on the slate this week with 69.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 61.9 plays per game.

THE BLITZ projects Travis Kelce to garner 10.3 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile among tight ends.

Travis Kelce's 56.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 49.4.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chiefs are a huge 9.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.

The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has allowed the 7th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (64.5%) versus tight ends this year (64.5%).

The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-quickest in football since the start of last season.

The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a lowly 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

More Travis Kelce Player Props

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