Travis Kelce Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Travis Kelce

NFL · Player Props

Travis Kelce

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 7, 2026

Updated Oct 25, 2026 8:22 PM EST

Analysis

Travis Kelce Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 45.5 (-111/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 46.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 45.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chiefs are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
At the moment, the 6th-most pass-oriented offense in football (63.7% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Kansas City Chiefs.
The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and lower rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The leading projections forecast Travis Kelce to accrue 6.8 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to TEs.
Travis Kelce has been an integral part of his team's passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 18.8% this year, which ranks him in the 92nd percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

Opposing teams teams have been wary to pass too much against the Seattle Seahawks, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 32.7 per game) this year.
After averaging 42.0 air yards per game last year, Travis Kelce has produced significantly fewer this year, now pacing 34.0 per game.
The Seahawks defense has yielded the fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 23.0) versus tight ends this year.
This year, the tough Seahawks defense has surrendered the least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing TEs: a paltry 4.3 yards.
As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Seattle's safety corps has been outstanding this year, profiling as the 4th-best in the NFL.

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