Travis Kelce Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Travis Kelce

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Arizona Cardinals vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Travis Kelce Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 73.5 (-135/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 73.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 73.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 6th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 2nd-most total plays on the slate this week with 64.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 6th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 65.5 plays per game.
The Kansas City Chiefs have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to lead to higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing offense effectiveness when facing better conditions in this week's game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 30.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in football.
The Arizona Cardinals defense has surrendered the 3rd-least receiving yards per game in football (just 36.0) to TEs since the start of last season.
The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has given up the 2nd-lowest Completion% in football (63.3%) versus tight ends since the start of last season (63.3%).
The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency against tight ends since the start of last season, giving up 6.53 yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-least in the NFL.