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Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 1

Arizona Cardinals vs Kansas City Chiefs

Travis Kelce Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-152/+114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -151 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -152.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 2nd-most total plays on the slate this week with 64.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 6th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 65.5 plays per game.

The Kansas City Chiefs have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to lead to higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing offense effectiveness when facing better conditions in this week's game.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Travis Kelce has been a big part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 16.8% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 87th percentile among TEs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chiefs are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.

Opposing teams have averaged 30.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in football.

The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has given up the 2nd-lowest Completion% in football (63.3%) versus tight ends since the start of last season (63.3%).

The Arizona Cardinals defense has conceded the least TDs through the air in the NFL to TEs: 0.12 per game since the start of last season.

The Arizona Cardinals safeties project as the 10th-best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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