Travis Homer Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Travis Homer

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Touchdowns

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 3:42 PM EST

Analysis

Travis Homer Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1233/-1438).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Steelers to pass on 58.7% of their opportunities: the 9th-highest clip among all teams this week.
The leading projections forecast the Steelers to be the most pass-centric offense in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 64.2% red zone pass rate.
The model projects the Steelers offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.48 seconds per snap.
While Travis Homer has garnered 42.9% of his offense's red zone run game usage in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a much smaller piece of Pittsburgh's run game near the end zone in this week's contest at 13.0%.
When talking about pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Steelers ranks as the 3rd-best in football this year.

Favors Under

A rushing game script is suggested by the Steelers being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest.
Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being predicted in this game) typically mean worse passing efficiency, lower air volume, and higher ground volume.
Travis Homer has been been lightly used his team's passing offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% this year, which places him in the 1st percentile when it comes to running backs.
Since the start of last season, the tough Colts defense has conceded a puny 77.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the 7th-smallest rate in the NFL.
This year, the deficient Colts run defense has given up a monstrous 1.25 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing teams: the 8th-largest rate in football.