Travis Homer Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Travis Homer

NFL · Player Props

Travis Homer

RB · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs Denver Broncos · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 12, 2022 11:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Travis Homer Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-107/-124).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -124.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seahawks are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Travis Homer has compiled a colossal 3.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 86th percentile among RBs.
Travis Homer has been among the most efficient receivers in the league among RBs, averaging an impressive 8.35 yards-per-target since the start of last season while grading out in the 88th percentile.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has shown weak efficiency versus RBs since the start of last season, surrendering 6.67 yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-most in the league.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 59.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks have called the least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 55.6 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.9 pass attempts per game against the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in football.
The Seattle Seahawks offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

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