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Travis Etienne

Travis Etienne Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans

 
 
 
Travis Etienne Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+126/-164).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +144 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +126.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Jaguars feature a new play-caller this season in head coach Liam Coen, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 3.3% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
  • Right now, the 7th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (62.2% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Jacksonville Jaguars.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by the projections to see 129.1 offensive plays run: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.
  • Travis Etienne has been heavily involved in his team's offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 14.3% this year, which places him in the 91st percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • The Jacksonville O-line grades out as the 5th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Jaguars have run the 3rd-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a measly 55.3 plays per game.
  • The weather forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
  • While Travis Etienne has accounted for 44.6% of his offense's red zone rushing play calls in games he has played since the start of last season, the leading projections forecast him to be a more important option in Jacksonville's ground game near the goal line this week at 56.2%.
  • Travis Etienne has accrued a paltry -1.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 25th percentile among RBs.
  • Since the start of last season, the stout Houston Texans defense has given up a meager 64.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the lowest rate in the league.

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