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Travis Etienne

Travis Etienne Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 14

Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Travis Etienne Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+151/-210).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +158 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +151.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jaguars have been the 9th-most run-centric team in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) this year with a 48.3% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects Travis Etienne to be a more integral piece of his offense's rushing attack near the end zone this week (63.1% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (42.6% in games he has played).

Travis Etienne has run for 0.33 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest marks in the league among running backs (80th percentile).

The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box versus opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Jaguars are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 3rd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the worst in the NFL this year in run blocking.

Opposing teams have rushed for the least touchdowns in the NFL (0.42 per game) versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year.

The Tennessee Titans defensive ends grade out as the 4th-best group of DEs in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.

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