Travis Etienne Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Travis Etienne

NFL · Player Props

Travis Etienne

RB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Washington Commanders vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 12, 2022 2:58 AM UTC

Analysis

Travis Etienne Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+135/-184).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -169 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -184.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.7% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Jaguars are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 63.1% pass rate.
The Jacksonville Jaguars offense has played at the 4th-fastest pace in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, averaging 25.82 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Travis Etienne to earn 4.8 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The Washington Commanders pass defense has allowed the 8th-lowest Completion% in football (76.7%) versus RBs since the start of last season (76.7%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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