Travis Etienne Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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NFL · Player Props

Travis Etienne

RB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New York Giants · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 4:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Travis Etienne Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-115/-113).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 4th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.29 seconds per snap.
Travis Etienne has run a route on 46.8% of his offense's dropbacks this year, ranking in the 81st percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects Travis Etienne to garner 3.1 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 79th percentile among running backs.
Travis Etienne has put up a monstrous 4.0 air yards per game this year: 82nd percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a 3-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
The weather report calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game versus the New York Giants defense this year: 5th-least in football.
The New York Giants defense has surrendered the 4th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 24.0) vs. running backs this year.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on just 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.