Travis Etienne Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Travis Etienne

NFL · Player Props

Travis Etienne

RB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Carries

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Denver Broncos · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 3:56 PM EST

Analysis

Travis Etienne Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-115/-113).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -103 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 2nd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Travis Etienne to earn 17.8 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 91st percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects Travis Etienne to be a much bigger part of his offense's run game this week (62.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (37.4% in games he has played).
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.4% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in the league this year at run-game blocking.
The Denver Broncos defensive tackles project as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year in regard to run defense.

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