Travis Etienne Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 14

NFL · Player Props

Travis Etienne

RB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Carries

Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Travis Etienne Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-123/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Travis Etienne to notch 16.6 carries this week, on average, ranking him in the 91st percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects Travis Etienne to be a more important option in his offense's running game this week (67.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (50.5% in games he has played).
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box versus opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone for it on 4th down 23.0% of the time since the start of last season (8th-most in football), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Jaguars are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 3rd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the worst in the NFL this year in run blocking.
The Tennessee Titans defensive ends grade out as the 4th-best group of DEs in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.