Tony Pollard Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Tony Pollard

RB · Tennessee Titans

Rushing Yards

Tennessee Titans vs New York Jets · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 7:52 PM EST

Analysis

Tony Pollard Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 50.5 (+102/+102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 49.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 50.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

In this contest, Tony Pollard is expected by the projection model to secure a spot in the 77th percentile when it comes to running backs with 12.5 carries.
With an impressive rate of 51.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (86th percentile), Tony Pollard places among the top running backs in the league last year.
Tony Pollard checks in as one of the leading RBs in the NFL at grinding out extra ground yardage, averaging an excellent 3.21 yards-after-contact last year while ranking in the 75th percentile.
Last year, the feeble New York Jets run defense has been gouged for a massive 144.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the 2nd-worst in the league.
When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, New York's DT corps has been terrible last year, grading out as the 8th-worst in football. in football.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (1-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may drop.
While Tony Pollard has accounted for 65.3% of his team's carries in games he has played last year, the predictive model expects him to be a less important option in Tennessee's running game in this game at 48.6%.